The Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors are set to clash at Chase Center on Wednesday, November 26, 2025, at 22:00 UTC — a game that feels less like a regular-season contest and more like a playoff rematch in waiting. The Rockets, riding an eight-win streak in their last ten games, enter as slight 52% favorites per Accuscore.com, yet the betting line tells a different story: the Warriors are favored by 2.5 points. Why the disconnect? Because this isn’t just about stats. It’s about pride. About revenge. And about a team that still carries the scars of a brutal seven-game playoff collapse against these same Warriors in the 2025 first round.
Revenge Is a Dish Served Cold — and Fast
Last spring, the Rockets lost a heartbreaker to the Warriors in the playoffs, blowing a 3-1 lead and watching Stephen Curry drop 42 points in Game 7. The aftermath? Tears in the locker room. A coaching staff re-evaluating everything. And now, months later, the Rockets are back — tougher, faster, and more dangerous. Under head coach Ime Udoka, they’ve transformed from a slow, defense-first unit into the NBA’s third-highest-rated offense (122.9 points per 100 possessions), despite losing their floor general Fred VanVleet to a season-ending injury. That’s not luck. That’s leadership. Meanwhile, the Warriors, coached by Steve Kerr, are finding their rhythm again. After a sluggish start to the season (10-9 record), they’ve won six of their last seven at home. Their 134-117 dismantling of the Utah Jazz last week wasn’t just about scoring — it was about rhythm. Draymond Green orchestrated the flow, and Curry, averaging 27.4 points and 3.7 assists, looked like the MVP-caliber player he’s been for a decade. But here’s the twist: the Warriors are still vulnerable under the basket. Their rebounding (43.4 per game) lags behind Houston’s 49.4. And they’re prone to lapses when opponents attack the paint.Numbers Don’t Lie — But They Don’t Tell the Whole Story
Let’s break it down. The Rockets shoot 47.7% from the field, 37% from three, and convert 79.2% of their free throws. They average 25.7 two-pointers and 15.4 threes per game — a balanced, relentless attack. Their defense? Third in the league. Opponents average just 111 points against them. Compare that to the Warriors: 44.2% shooting, 80.2% free-throw accuracy, but a defense that surrenders 114.7 points per game. They’re flashy — 29.1 assists per game, 11.1 steals — but they don’t control the paint. The rebounding gap is stark: Houston grabs 49.4 boards per game, Golden State only 43.4. And while the Warriors have a slight edge in assists, the Rockets have more blocks (4.4 to 4.7) and more steals (9.6 to 11.1). That’s not a coincidence. Udoka’s system forces turnovers, then turns them into transition threes. And they’ve got a rising star in Reed Sheppard, who dropped 31 points and nine rebounds in their last meeting — a performance that stunned the Bay Area.Home Court vs. Historical Ghosts
Chase Center has been a graveyard for the Rockets. In their last ten visits, the Warriors won eight. But here’s the catch: the Rockets won their most recent trip there — 115-107 — and they’ve won 19 of their last 20 Wednesday night games. That’s not superstition. That’s momentum. And they’re coming in with a 10-5 ATS record, while the Warriors are just 9-9 against the spread. The Warriors, meanwhile, have covered the spread in each of their last four games against Southwest Division rivals with winning records. But they’re also 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against Houston. That’s the kind of contradiction that makes betting messy. Forebet.com gives the Warriors a 52% win probability. Accuscore.com says the same for Houston. SportsGambler.com, however, sees value in the Rockets’ +108 moneyline. And PickDawgz.com? They’re leaning Golden State — citing home energy, veteran poise, and Houston’s injury concerns.
Who’s Really in Control?
The Rockets have won eight of their last ten. The Warriors? Five. Houston’s offense is humming. Golden State’s is efficient, but inconsistent. The Warriors rely on Curry’s brilliance to carry them. The Rockets? They’ve got depth. Sheppard, Jalen Green, and Alperen Şengün all average over 18 points. And their bench outscored Phoenix’s reserves by 18 points in their last road win. The key might be tempo. The Warriors want to run. The Rockets want to grind. The over-under sits at 229.5–232.5 points — a number that favors a high-scoring game. But if Houston controls the paint and forces the Warriors into contested mid-range shots, this could turn into a 108-105 nail-biter.What’s Next?
If the Rockets win, they’ll be 12-4 — a legitimate top-4 seed contender. A loss? They’ll still be competitive, but the narrative shifts. The Warriors, if they win, move to 11-9 and reassert themselves as Western Conference threats. But if they lose? Questions will swirl about their ability to close out tough road games and whether they can sustain this level without Curry playing at 100% every night. This game isn’t just about points. It’s about identity. The Rockets are proving they can thrive without VanVleet. The Warriors are testing whether their core — Curry, Green, Kuminga — can still dominate in a league that’s getting faster, younger, and hungrier.Frequently Asked Questions
Why are the Rockets favored by 52% but listed as underdogs on the spread?
The 52% win probability from Accuscore.com is based on overall team performance, pace, and efficiency metrics. But the -2.5 point spread reflects market sentiment — bettors believe the Warriors’ home-court advantage, recent defensive improvements, and Curry’s clutch pedigree outweigh Houston’s statistical edge. It’s a classic case of model vs. market.
How has Reed Sheppard’s emergence changed the Rockets’ dynamic?
Sheppard, a 2024 draft pick, has become Houston’s secret weapon. After scoring 31 points in their last meeting against Golden State, he’s forced defenses to respect his shot, opening lanes for Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün. His 4.8 assists per game and 83% free-throw shooting make him a lethal floor spacer — and a nightmare for slower Warriors guards.
What’s the historical significance of this matchup?
The Rockets lost the 2025 first-round playoff series to the Warriors in seven games after leading 3-1 — a collapse that still haunts the franchise. This is their first chance to exact revenge on Golden State’s home floor. Historically, the Warriors have won 8 of the last 10 meetings at Chase Center, but Houston won the last one — and they’re playing with a chip on their shoulder.
Are injuries a factor for either team?
Houston is missing Fred VanVleet for the season, but they’ve adapted well. Golden State’s Draymond Green and Jonathan Kuminga are healthy, but Moses Moody and Andrew Wiggins have been battling minor knocks. The Warriors’ depth is thinner than Houston’s, especially in the frontcourt — a potential vulnerability against Şengün’s physicality.
Should I bet on the over or under?
The over-under sits at 229.5–232.5, and both teams have the firepower to hit it. But Houston’s defense is elite, and Golden State’s defense is leaky. If the Rockets control the pace and limit transition threes, the game could stay under. But if Curry gets hot early and Houston responds with fast breaks, we could see 125+ from each side.
What’s the most likely outcome?
A Houston win by 3–5 points, with the Rockets covering the spread. Their defense will slow the Warriors’ rhythm, Sheppard will hit a clutch three in the final minutes, and Golden State’s late-game execution — which has been shaky in close games — will falter. Expect 118–114, Rockets.
